As the 2020 United States presidential election quickly approaches, three recently conducted polls contribute towards an understanding of the current standing of President Donald Trump and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris. Rasmussen Reports, the Trafalgar Group, and InsiderAdvantage present intriguing yet almost unanimous conclusions on the candidates’ positions with just three weeks until election day.
According to Rasmussen Reports, one of the few polling firms to correctly predict the 2016 election, President Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden are currently locked in a race that’s too close to call. With just a 1% difference in support, it emphasizes the unprecedented uncertainty surrounding the election, reinforcing the importance of every voter turning out to cast their ballot. Their detailing of President Trump’s approval rating as in positive territory further illustrates the closeness of the contest, given that Biden also enjoys substantial support in this contentious electoral race.
In the same vein, The Trafalgar Group’s findings account for the ‘silent Trump supporter’ phenomenon, thereby challenging the widely accepted narrative of Biden’s significant lead. The Trafalgar Group uniquely adjusts its methodology to account for those voters who, due to perceived social pressures or fear of backlash, may not publicly express their support for Trump, but nonetheless intend to vote for him. Trafalgar’s conclusions align with Rasmussen’s findings, portraying the current contest between Trump and Biden as tightly balanced.
On the other hand, InsiderAdvantage’s poll considers a vital demographic that other pollsters may give less attention to. InsiderAdvantage studies jointly polled African-American voters and states that Trump holds a considerable 15% share of the African-American vote—a striking increase from his 8% share in the 2016 election, which could potentially influence the election results. Chairman Matt Towery Sr. of InsiderAdvantage, with his extensive experience covering multiple elections, stated that these numbers suggest a developing trend which could prove to be a game-changer.
However, the situation is not as rosy when it comes to Vice President-elect Kamala Harris. The same polls discovered that Harris’ approval ratings are lower than hoped by the Democratic campaign, which throws into question the wisdom behind Biden’s choice to select her as his running mate. Concerns have been expressed regarding her ability to draw moderate voters, particularly due to her voting record in the Senate and the stances she adopted during her stint as the Attorney General of California.
In a nutshell, these three separate and reputable polls—Rasmussen Reports, The Trafalgar Group, and InsiderAdvantage—agree that the electoral race between President Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden is set to be much closer than expected. While they show that Trump’s support is steady, if not increasing, they also reveal a certain degree of hesitance, if not disapproval, towards Kamala Harris. The geopolitical landscape of the upcoming election is undoubtedly complex and dynamic, and these three weeks leading up to the election day could bring even more shifts that could either consolidate or disrupt the current standings.
